India

India’s rich eye gold

The emergence of young, entrepreneurial high networth individuals in India is leading to a more diverse investment appetite, with gold linked debentures and gold ETFs high on the list.

The amount of wealth held by high networth individuals in India has reportedly increased faster than that held by rich people globally, according to a report, which notes that India’s elite are looking to invest their cash in gold.

With Indians holding more than 18,000 tonnes of the precious metal, the report by Indian wealth management firm Karvy Private Wealth has noted that the demand for gold has risen by 13% on average over the past 10 years, and is likely to increase by 30% this year.

The report found that while the fortunes of high networth individuals internationally grew by around 9.7% during 2011, money held by India’s rich increased by more than 18%. The growth made India one of the fastest growing high networth populations in the world, accounting for 1.6% of global wealth, according to the report.

Even as these rich Indians look for risk averse ways to invest their cash, the rising demand for gold from this class has not gone unnoticed. Though much of the growth in wealth was thanks to the increase in investment in fixed deposits, bonds and equities, the most popular alternative asset was structured products in the form of equity and gold-linked debentures, which constituted nearly 72% of the total wealth invested.

Individual wealth of Indians surged to $1,683 billion (Rs 86.5 lakh crore) in 2010-11 fiscal. Investment in alternative assets has increased significantly, boosted by investors’ rising confidence and interest in a relatively newer class of assets, the report states. According to Karvy, total assets under management (AUM) in equity-linked debentures was estimated to have grown 21% year on year.

According to R Parandekar, group head of the Wealth Management and Asset Management team at Karvy, “India’s individual wealth in alternative assets is 0.34% of her total wealth in comparison to 6.2% globally. We believe that alternative assets will be a major investment avenue in India over the next few years. Alternative assets including Gold ETFs, structured products, private equity and venture capital funds, etc. which are expected to grow at a rapid pace of 100% per annum.”

Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) have also seen a steady increase in interest. The asset base of gold ETFs, as per data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India, has surged 167% between January and November 2011 to $1.8 billion (Rs 9658 crore). In the last two years, gold mutual fund assets have grown nearly 570%.

Analysts say the gold fund category is the only one that has generated significant returns for investors in 2011, ending the year generating over 30% returns. Gold funds gained 27% to 31% over the past one year, as compared to large cap equity funds, short term bond funds and income funds which on an average returned minus (-) 23%, 9.04% and 8.2% respectively during the same period, according to data from Value Research.

Between now and 2016, the wealth of India’s richest is also expected to treble. As per the Karvy report, with current annual household savings of about 34%, and expected to grow 8% on average, India is well poised to lead wealth creation in the global arena.

Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=143379&sn=Detail

China Now Controls the Solar Industry

Recently American solar companies like Solyndra, Evergreen Solar and Spectrawatt have filed for bankruptcy. These events may lead investors to believe that Solar is finished.

The US solar industry was hit hard by announcements out of Europe that some nations, like Italy, were scaling back their expenditures on solar due to their debt crisis. At the same time we have nations like India announcing a US $19 billion plan to produce 20GW of solar power by the year 2020.

Where will the solar panels for this market be manufactured?

India does not have sufficient rare industrial metal inventories or rare earth metal production to meet the demands of the government plan.

China has positioned itself as the country with 97% control over the majority of rare industrial metals and rare earth metals needed to produce high efficiency solar panels.

What does this mean for companies producing solar panels?

Among many other reasons for restricting exports of rare metals, China wants companies to produce the products in China to keep its workforce employed. If companies want to import metals from China in to produce the panels in other nations they will have to pay much higher prices for the metals due to taxes, shipping, export costs and other import costs. Accordingly, The US manufacturers will have a difficult time competing with the manufacturers in China.

The other issue that the companies do not want to talk about is government subsidies and tax breaks. Jason Burack the co-author of the, ¨Dragon Metals Report¨, and owner of www.wallstformainst.com recently said, ¨Message to all CEOs in solar, “Switch immediately to the best Solar panel technology using materials like rare earths, rare industrial metals and graphene and stop relying on the government for subsidies to produce inferior technology panels the market does not want, also a successful long term business model for any company should not be to rely on getting all of your revenue and contracts from the government, which is what many solar companies have done¨.

There are three, ¨Thin-Film PV¨ kinds of solar panels.

1. CdTe or Cadmium Telluride with an efficiency of 6%-11%.

2. a-Si or Amorphous Silicon with an efficiency of 6%-12%

3. CIGS or Copper Indium Gallium Selenide with an efficiency of 10%-20%

CIGS Advantages:

A. Highest energy yield

B. No environmentally hazardous materials

C. You can mold the panels to fit many applications

D. They can possibly bring the cost of solar energy panels down to below $1 per watt.

 The other technology on the horizon is graphene composite solar panels. They are made of copper, molybdenum and graphite. Molybdenum and graphite have both been deemed highly critical to national security for many nations. Once again China has a powerful position because they control over 80% of the graphite market. So once again China has the foresight to see the technologies on the horizon and has positioned itself to prosper.

Currently 89% of the total installed solar panels worldwide are located in Germany, Japan and the USA. In the coming years we will see a growing demand from China for its own solar needs. Between China and India the demand for solar panels will far exceed our current ability to produce the panels. The costs of solar are coming down and the closer we are to grid parity, the more use of solar we will see. Since many of the metals used to produce these panels have been deemed critical to many nations national security, the prices of these metals are bound to stay elevated. China has shown that it will continue to restrict the exports of the rare industrial and rare earth metals further tightening the supply chains.

By: Randy Hilarski - The Rare Metals Guy

Chromium, are Nations Hoarding Natural Resources?

Chromium is a topic that you rarely hear about, but in today´s environment of uncertainty and the, ¨Great Worldwide Resource Grab¨, chromium gets more attention. Recently we have the EU and USA going into Libya (oil, lithium), Iraq (oil), Afghanistan (oil pipeline, rare earths), West Africa (cobalt, tungsten, oil, gold, timber and many more). Let us not forget China and the contracts that they are signing all over the world for their natural resource needs. This all makes for some very interesting times for nations and investors alike. Rare industrial metals are no different. Chromium has been in the news so it is time to explain its uses and background.

Chromium was discovered by Louis Vauqelin in 1797. Chromium is a blue-white metal with great corrosion resistance. It has the symbol Cr with an atomic number of 24. Chromium can be polished to form a very shiny surface and is used to plate other metals to form a protective layer.

The main use of chromium is in the production of steel where it is used as a hardener, corrosion resister and helps fight decolorization. Iron and chromium form Stainless Steel which is strong and has a high resistance to heat and decomposition. The two form one of the most versatile and durable metals known in the world. Stainless steel contains approximately 10% chromium. Chromium is also used in paints, coloring in glass, and as a plating agent.

According to the USGS the top producers are South Africa, Kazakhstan and India. South Africa produces almost 50% of all chrome ore. The three countries account for 80% of all chrome ore mined. Approximately 95% of all known reserves are located in Kazakhstan and the southern tip of Africa to include Zimbabwe and South Africa.

The background of chromium is interesting, but today we have a hot topic. India is thinking about a ban on exportation of chrome ore. This is after news out of South Africa that the, ¨National Union of Mineworkers¨, called for restrictions of chrome ore exports to China. It has been speculated that China has been stockpiling chrome ore in order to control future prices. Does this sound familiar? We currently have to deal with the manipulation of the rare earths and rare industrial metals by China. As of October 2011 India and South Africa have not followed through with the plans. The next few weeks and months will be quite interesting, we are seeing an increase in the need for chromium, with a possible decrease in available supply.

Today our world is full of uncertainty. Every day brings us news of something amazing. Governments are under pressure, people are suffering, companies are folding, wonderful inventions, worldwide internet connectivity, and resources are becoming scarce. I have learned that in times like this you can either complain or build a grand future. Many fortunes were made during the US Great Depression. We are living through a worldwide recession, when we come out on the other side natural resources will be needed like never before. Where are you putting your money and future?

By: Randy Hilarski - The Rare Metals Guy

Alternative Metals to Gold and Silver

Rare Industrial Metal - Cobalt

The last decade has been a wonderful time for Gold Bugs and Silver Bugs. We have profited and protected our wealth against inflation. Gold has risen from around $250 per ounce in 2001 to a recent high of $1917.90 and silver has risen from around $5 per ounce in 2001 to a recent high of $49.81. These numbers are quite exciting for anyone involved in the precious metals markets. Being a Silver Bug myself, I have to admit the ride up has been rather erratic. Long ago I had to learn to ignore the daily Comex price of Silver. Gold and Silver will continue to be an important part of my future holdings, but going forward I am beginning diversification into other metals. Here is a brief overview of some of the rare industrial metals I like and why I believe they are a good choice for anyone who believes in holding physical metals as part of their asset strategy.

There are many who believe the world is in a recession and this may be true in the USA, EU, and other Western nations. There are a few of us who still believe that the speed of industry and commerce is accelerating. I have spent time in Africa, had an opportunity to live in Europe for a few years and I currently live in Panama. This experience has opened my eyes to what is happening outside of the USA. What I see is a great mass of people who were once walking now driving cars. These same people are talking on mobile phones, watching television on a flat screen, using their laptop at a cafe, getting better medical care, flying on vacations, living in modern homes and working jobs that require technology. This is happening across the planet! Can you imagine the impact on demand for rare industrial metals from countries of the BRIC, (Brazil, Russia, India, China), with the size of their populations? Like it or not commercialization was tested in the USA and was a huge success and now it has been exported worldwide. Here in Panama with a population of just over 3 Million we are adding 3000 automobiles a month to the roads. There are enough mobile phones in Panama to give every citizen 3 handsets. All of this takes a lot of natural resources and metals. Below are some of the important metals I would like to introduce to you.

Tantalum, the rare technical and industrial metal that gives technology the ability to be compact. Have you ever wondered why we no longer have to carry around mobile phones the size of a brick? The tantalum capacitor was a revolutionary invention for the world. Today you find tantalum in all of your personal electronics. Tantalum is now being used in in medical implants because it is non-toxic and does not react with body fluids. It is also used in jet aircraft as an alloying agent. Current worldwide production of tantalum is approximately 1160t annually. By 2030 just the demand is estimated to be 1410t. A few years back there was a lot of controversy surrounding tantalum because of its “Conflict Metal” tag. The metal was originally being mined in the Congo but most tantalum is mined in Australia, Brazil, and Canada.

Indium, how do you like that touch screen on your mobile phone? This rare technical and industrial metal has become a star among the elements recently. Indium’s uses in phones, computers, semi-conductors and televisions are well known. The one use that I would really like to highlight is in CIGS (copper-indium-gallium-selenide) thin film solar cells. These solar panels are the latest technology to hit the solar industry. Recently we have heard India, Japan, USA, Germany, Spain and many other countries announce huge solar initiatives. India alone signed into law a US $19 billion plan to produce 20 GW of solar power by 2020. Under the plan, the use of solar-powered equipment and applications would be made compulsory on all government buildings, as well as hospitals and hotels. This initiative alone will use up all the entire world’s production of solar cells. According to the USGS 84% of all indium production is currently used in solar cell production. Current worldwide production of Indium is approximately 600t per year. The future amount of indium required will depend greatly on the solar industry. Indium is mined in China, Canada, Bolivia and Japan.

Cobalt, have you driven a hybrid or electric vehicle lately? This rare technical and industrial metal is the one of the elements that makes the batteries in these cars possible. Cobalt is also used in pigments, super-alloys, non-corrosive medical implants, dental implants and jet engines. The top use today is as an alloy to make metals resistant to corrosion. The one I see real promise in is the use of hybrid and electric vehicle batteries. By 2012 the estimated sales of hybrid vehicles worldwide is approximately 2.2 Million and by 2015 to be at least 10% of the world auto market. Currently the biggest hurdle to these vehicles is the added cost and the ability to produce enough batteries to meet the demand. Cobalt has gained a lot of attention since the London Metal Exchange (LME) launched a cobalt contract in February 2010. Current worldwide production of cobalt is approximately 57,500t annually. The future is bright for cobalt. Every aircraft that goes in the air and every hybrid vehicle sold will put greater pressure on the supply of this metal. Cobalt is mined in Australia, Congo, Russia, Zambia and a few other countries.

These are just a few of the metals that our world needs to operate and the future is looking great for all commodities. I like the rare technical and industrial metals because of the tight supply and all of the wonderful uses for them. The mining of these metals is often a by-product of base metal like copper, lead and zinc. Most of the large deposits have been found and are in production. This translates into a very tight supply for the future and profits for investors. Silver and Gold have been my metals of choice for many years, but I see great opportunity for the person who is adventurous and willing to add another asset to their portfolio before the masses catch on.

By: Randy Hilarski - The Rare Metals Guy
Source: http://www.buyrareearthmetalschinaprices.com

Metals Through the Roof

Speakers at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town this week seemed as one in warning of a near-term supply-demand squeeze and some solid price increases for a swathe of metals.

They made the point that China and India will be central to minerals demand growth. And among the so-called rare-earth metals that are crucial to many of today’s high-tech products, China is the leading producer and is curbing exports unless they are already processed into manufactured products. As consultant Jack Lifton saw it, stronger demand has not (and cannot) lead to greater production.

Many of the metals that are needed for items such as solar panels, super-conductors and jet engines are produced as by-products of lead, zinc, copper, manganese or aluminium mining. There is no chance of increasing production of indium, gallium, germanium, rhenium, thorium and tellurium from primary mines.

It is not the same for copper, the metal showing the second-highest price increase over the past year, lead was first and zinc third. These are metals that better reflect the state of demand in the real economy.

Chinese demand is growing and, there are supply constraints. New mines cannot be brought on stream at the flick of a switch. Iron ore is in much the same boat. Price rises will be far more restrained than they were a year or two ago.

Silver is the New Gold :: Prices double in a year

An international buying spree, or flight to safety by global investors, saw silver prices breach 30-year highs on Sunday at $33.30 an ounce. Emerging economies of China and India are both heavy consumers of the metal, which is used in jewelry but also has its use as a raw material for industrial use. Silver is now up 22.28 per cent in the past 30 days and according to traders, has more than doubled in the last one year, trading as it was at $16.24/oz on February 27, 2010.

Compared with this, gold prices have gone up by just a little over 6 percent in the past 30 days and according to data sourced from goldprice.org, the yellow metal is up by just 27.75 percent in the last one year. This is now leading to precious metal analysts to argue that silver will see much more appreciation in the months to come, especially since the extent of global silver reserves are debatable.

€œRobust international demand, financial and political instability across the world, and concerns over remaining reserves all harbor well for the price of silver,€ said a Mumbai-based wholesale trader of silver. €œSilver is the new gold,€ he said. (Source: Emirates 24/7)

U.S. Inflation Set to Soar as the Country’s Chief Export Boomerangs

January 13, 2011
By Martin Hutchinson, Contributing Editor, Money Morning

While prices for food and energy have been rising, inflation in the United States has remained relatively subdued.

One common explanation for that phenomenon is that U.S. inflation has been “exported” to China and elsewhere through the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. And given the perennial U.S. balance of payments deficit, it’s good to know the country has found something it can successfully export!

However, the bad news here is that inflation does not stay exported - and in 2011 it may boomerang back to make life on Main Street miserable.

Thankfully, there are precautions we can take to combat higher prices and preserve our wealth.

U.S. monetary policy has involved excessive money creation since 1995, fueling asset bubble after asset bubble. However, it has not produced inflation in the United States because the dollar is a reserve currency, so excess dollars flow to countries whose economies are more vulnerable to inflationary pressures.

In the 1990s, the excess dollars flowed to Argentina, whose currency was pegged to the dollar. The imported inflation wrecked Argentina’s sound policies of that decade and contributed to a debt-fueled collapse in 2001. Since 2008, the excess money has gone to China, India, Brazil and other fast-growing emerging markets. It also has fueled a massive growth in foreign exchange reserves among the world’s central banks. Central bank holdings of forex reserve have grown more than 16% per annum since 1998.

China, India, and Brazil all currently have massive inflation problems. China, which has increased its inflation by holding down its currency against the dollar, has been very proactive in tackling inflation as of late. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the markets on Christmas Day by raising its one-year refinancing rate by 52 basis points to 3.85% and increasing the benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%.

The PBOC has increased bank reserve requirements five times in the past year and raised interest rates twice - albeit by a scant 0.25% each time.

China’s official inflation rate currently is 5.1%, up from 1.5% at the beginning of 2010, but its figures are suspect. The PBOC probably will have to raise its benchmark rate several more times from its current level of 5.81% before it’s able to bring inflation under control.

India’s inflation is about 7.5%, but is expected to rise further since food prices are surging at double-digit rates. Prices for onions, for instance, are up 33% from last year. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is again raising interest rates, now at 6.25%. But, as in China, sloppiness in official inflation statistics means Indian interest rates are negative in real terms and the RBI will have to continue raising rates if it wants to control inflation.

Brazilian inflation was 5.91% in December and is rising fast. Newly elected President Dilma Rousseff fired the central bank chief and is trying to bring interest rates down from their current level of 10.75%. Again, inflation seems likely to surge in the near term.

To complete the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) picture, Russian inflation is currently running at 8.8%. That’s down from a year ago, but still much higher than the Russian government would like it to be.

With inflation rising in all four BRIC countries and many other emerging markets, the U.S. holiday from inflation cannot last much longer. The Fed’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2), which included purchases of $600 billion in Treasury bonds before July, and the December package of tax cuts are also fueling inflationary forces.

Money growth, which had been low in 2009 after the burst in late 2008, has once again risen to worrying levels. Over the last four months, the average growth rates of broad money on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ Money of Zero Maturity and M2 Money Stock measures were up 10% and 7%, respectively. That’s comparable to their growth in the 1970s.

Furthermore, oil prices are approaching $100 per barrel, and other commodity prices are strong, as well. So however successful the Fed has been in exporting inflation since 2008, its success won’t last for much longer. At some point in 2011, inflation will be re-imported - and probably with a roar rather than a whisper.

When that happens, the Fed will have to raise interest rates to fight rising prices. Of course, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will almost certainly resist this inevitability, fudging figures and producing spurious arguments to avoid making the right decision. When the Fed does eventually raise rates, it will do so grudgingly - as it did during the period from 2004 to 2007.

That means higher short-term interest rates probably won’t arrive until 2012, and higher long-term rates could potentially be delayed by more quantitative easing. The result will be an unholy mess that takes the form of surging inflation in 2011 and a second recessionary “dip” in 2012.

Gold and other commodities will continue to offer protection against the surge in inflation in 2011, as they have in the last few years. At some point, though, the market will start to anticipate tighter Fed policy and gold and other commodities prices will collapse.

Still, in 1979-80, gold and commodities prices went on rising for more than three months following then-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker’s famous 1979 “October surprise,” in which he pushed up the Federal Funds rate by two full percentage points over a weekend.

If the gold and commodities markets didn’t believe the obviously serious Volcker would stop inflation until several months after he took decisive action, they certainly won’t have confidence in the actions taken by a reticent Ben Bernanke. So your gold and commodities investments will probably be pretty safe even if the Fed does eventually start raising rates. Certainly they are a good bet for now. More importantly, they will protect you against the pending surge in inflation.