CIGS market to double by 2015
While the solar photovoltaic market is tight and competitive, there is one arm researchers say is almost guaranteed to grow.
Copper indium gallium diselenide solar (CIGS) will double in installed capacity by 2015, according to a recently released research report from Lux Research. The market for CIGS is expected to be worth more than $2.3 billion by then.
“The big driver for us to look at this was all of the oversupply in the industry creating downward pressure,” said Lux analyst Pallavi Madakasiri. “For a new company to try to get in now is almost impossible.”
Traditional mono- and poly-crystalline solar photovoltaic modules have flooded the market causing dramatic price drops and lower profit margins for the companies building them.
In traditional thin-film technologies, First Solar completely dominates the market.
But CIGS have shown tremendous increases in conversion efficiency, reaching over 20 percent at the cell level, Madakasiri said.
Manufacturing and productions costs have also fallen off as processes have grown more efficient.
And most of the companies working in that market are still getting started.
“There has been a lot of interest and investment in CIGS,” Madakasiri said.
The technology is emerging with a lot of opportunity for growth, Madakasiri said, though it will face challenges, including a sharp fall in venture capital dollars.
Among those companies actively working in the market, some stand out.
“We used 12 different metrics to identify winners and losers,” Madakisiri said.
The criteria graded companies on their technical value, business execution, business maturity and capacity.
“Solar Frontier clearly leads the pack,” Madakasiri said.
That company has a solid position in the “dominant” quadrant of the Lux Research grid. Solar Frontier has already worked its way into emerging markets like India, where it is selling about 30 megawatts of CIGS cells a year.
“We also believe others have a very good chance of succeeding,” Madakasiri said.
Other contenders in the CIGS market are Global Solar, Avancis and Solibro. Madakasiri said she expects they could be very successful if they make good business decisions moving forward.
By: Amanda H. Miller
Source: http://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-news/report-says-cigs-market-to-double-by-2015-012412/
Thanks China! U.S. solar exports skyrocket 83 percent
Contrary to conventional wisdom, China’s boom in solar manufacturing has been a boon for U.S. companies. In 2010, U.S. exports of solar products skyrocketed 83 percent to $5.6 billion thanks to Chinese demand for raw material and equipment used to make photovoltaic modules, according to a new report by GTM Research from the Solar Energy Industries Association. More importantly, the U.S. was a $1.9 billion net exporter of solar energy products.
The upshot? The U.S. solar industry is pretty diverse, well-balanced and still poised for growth. The U.S solar industry is clearly central to the global supply chain, as the report suggests. More impressive is that rate of growth. In 2009, the U.S. solar industry had a positive trade flow of $723 million. A year later, it more than doubled.
The key phrase here is solar products, which mean the entire value chain including “soft costs” such as installation labor, permitting, site preparation and financing. These soft costs made up nearly 50 percent of the total solar revenue in 2010.
Photovoltaic components accounted for more than 99 percent of the year’s exports with most of that supply heading for China and Germany. Polysilicon, the feedstock of crystalline silicon photovoltaic, was by far the largest category. Exports of polysilicon hit $2.5 billion, more than double the amount in 2009.
Highlights from the report:
Capital equipment exports were $1.4 billion
U.S. imports of PV products totaled $3.7 billion. The majority came from modules assembled overseas. China and Mexico were the top two sources of PV goods.
The U.S. was a net exporter of solar products to China last year by more than $240 million;
For every dollar spent on a U.S. solar installation in 2010, $0.75 accrued to the United States.
By Kirsten Korosec | August 30, 2011
www.smartplanet.com
Specialty Glass: Engineered for Greater Thin-Film Solar Efficiency
Improved performance and efficiency in photovoltaic systems have traditionally focused on advances in battery technology or charge controllers. Recently, however, solar module makers are looking at specialty glasses for better performance.
Both crystalline silicon and thin-film module makers have long known that low-iron soda lime glass can provide higher conversion efficiency relative to standard soda lime glass. Standard soda lime glass has been used in PV panels up until now, largely due to availability.
Low-iron glass provides higher optical transmittance as compared to standard soda lime glass
Float glass manufacturers throughout the world produce a range of thicknesses, with 3.2 millimeter thick soda lime being the most common due to its use in applications such as architecture, transportation and now solar modules. Though a number of factors contribute to increased solar cell efficiency, low-iron glass provides higher optical transmittance as compared to standard soda lime glass. Corning’s engineered glass, for example, provides optical transmittance performance that exceeds both.
If one considers the 400 nm to 900 nm wavelength range of the solar spectrum, measurements show that standard soda lime glass transmittance decreases rapidly from just below 90% at 400 nm to less than 80% at 900 nm. Low-iron soda lime glass performs better, exceeding 90% transmittance at 400 nm, though the transmittance declines to less than 90% at 900 nm.
High optical transmittance is only one factor which contributes to higher solar cell efficiency. Iron-free, engineered glass has been proven to increase thin-film cell efficiency even further.
High conversion efficiency creates significant value.
Specialty glass further enables high efficiency through its ability to withstand high absorber layer deposition temperatures. While soda lime glass is readily available for photovoltaic applications, the ability of this glass to withstand high temperature (up to 600°C and beyond) is a limiting factor. New engineered glass from Corning presents the opportunity to raise absorber deposition temperatures, with demonstrated absolute efficiency increases of greater than +1% achieved by depositing thin film absorber layers at high temperature. The use of increased absorber deposition temperature results in a higher quality semiconductor film, and hence, higher solar cell efficiency.
Raising cell efficiency should be looked at as more than just a technical measure of solar industry progress. Increased efficiency creates higher energy output for a given system size, and can reduce overall balance of system (BOS) costs.
Consider a side-by-side comparison of a hypothetical thin-film module with an area of one square meter. It’s reasonable to assume that soda lime glass enables a module efficiency of 10%, whereas the use of a specialty glass could potentially increase this to 12%. A 100 W module would now produce 120 W when manufactured with engineered glass. Efficiency and power output are correspondingly increased by 20%. Reduced weight reduces costs
A secondary benefit of using thinner, specialty glass is weight reduction. Specialized glass can be produced in different thicknesses to meet customer specifications. Instead of the traditional 3.2 mm soda lime glass, module makers will find engineered glass to be significantly thinner, no greater than 2 mm.
The same one square meter module described above using one sheet of 1.5 mm specialty glass combined with 3.2 mm soda lime glass weighs 28% less than the same module using two pieces of 3.2 mm soda lime. The result is lower BOS costs by reducing transportation and installation expenses.
More efficient, lighter, thinner but is it reliable?
Corning specialty glass for thin-film photovoltaic solar panels. The majority of solar module warranties cover a period of 25 years, and depending on location, the installation may be exposed to wind, rain, hail, snow and even blowing sand. Despite being much thinner, the special nature of engineered glass makes it reliable for solar installations. Engineered glasses made by Corning meet or exceed International Electronic Commission (IEC) standards.
This includes withstanding a 25 mm ice ball impact at 23 m/s, wind load resistance of 2,400 Pa, and heavy snow load of 5,400 Pa.
Looking ahead.
As the trend indicates, the glass of choice used in solar modules is changing as new, engineered glasses are being developed and customized to achieve higher conversion efficiency. Corning is tailoring glasses for each of the leading thin-film technologies: cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium di-selenide (CIGS), and Si-Tandem. Corning’s research has produced consistently high cell efficiencies for CdTe, and achieved a world record 11.9% cell efficiency for Si-Tandem.
Independent of technology, increased conversion efficiency and lower cost per watt is vital for the long-term success of the PV market.
Written by Dr. Mark Krol | 10 August 2011
www.solarnovus.com
About the Author
Dr. Mark Krol is Commercial Technology Director at Corning Photovoltaic Glass Technologies in Corning, New York.
Chinese indium export policies pushing price over $1000/kg
Indium is heading for prices of more than $1000/kg, according to industry analyst firm NanoMarkets in a new report “Chinese Indium Strategies: Threats and Opportunities for Displays, Photovoltaics and Electronics”, which examines the impact on the electronics and related materials industries of recent Chinese policies to restrict the export of indium. Even higher prices have been suggested in the Chinese press â as much as $3000/kg.
China is the world’s largest supplier of indium by far, accounting for almost three-quarters of world reserves and about half of production. As such, its policies affect the markets for all indium-related electronic materials.
This activity has recently been formalized in a new Chinese five-year plan, which is designed to stimulate domestic Chinese high-tech industries. NanoMarkets claims that this move by the Chinese government will have significant negative implications for several classes of electronics products (in the areas of displays, lighting, photovoltaics, compound semiconductor chips, lead-free solders). The report therefore examines China’s evolving indium policy in both economic and political terms and explains how it will act as a catalyst for creating new growth opportunities in both the extraction industry and advanced electronic materials industries worldwide, looking especially at the impact on markets for novel transparent conductors and compound semiconductors.
In particular, high indium prices may force the conservative display industry to shift to ITO alternatives, especially those using nanomaterials, believes NanoMarkets.
Japanese indium users, who currently use 70% of China’s indium production, may find themselves without sufficient indium within a year. As a result, NanoMarkets expects firms in countries that have not been large suppliers of indium (including Australia, Canada, Laos and Peru) to rush into the market.
NanoMarkets also predicts that, for the first time, there will be significant amounts of indium extraction from sources other than zinc mines (e.g. sources such as tin and tungsten mining). The Chinese indium policy seems certain to incentivize new sources outside China to produce indium, either through primary extraction methods or through recycling/reclamation, the firm reckons.
Also, a sharp rise in the price of indium will harm the resurgent copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) photovoltaic (PV) industry, but in turn this will open the door for cadmium telluride (CdTe) and crystalline silicon (c-Si) PVs, which will become more price competitive, says NanoMarkets. In addition, new classes of absorber materials (zinc or tin) may emerge that are CIGS-like but don’t actually use indium.
Thin-film PV comes one step closer to rivaling crystalline PV in efficiency
“The significance of the modules tested at NREL is that they’re all done on the product line,” said Stephen Barry, vice president of corporate development at MiaSolé.
The news, he said, comes on the heels of MiaSolé’s announcement of modules rated at 14.3 percent efficiency in September 2010. The goal is to achieve a CIGS module that is as efficient as the most powerful CIGS cells tested at NREL,
“We believe there’s more headroom there [for efficiency increases],” he said.
“This is a very exciting result, especially when it comes so soon after the previous 14.3 percent achievement from last September,” NREL solar researcher Dr. Rommel Noufi said in a press release. “An almost 1.5 percent absolute increase in efficiency in such a short time on a continuous roll-to-roll manufacturing line is impressive and demonstrates good process control and a validation of the MiaSolé approach.”
At present, because thin-film PV is behind crystalline silicon PV in terms of efficiency, it need more space to produce electricity. Therefore, most thin-film PVs available today are being used in large-scale applications like commercial warehouses and solar farms and not for residential purposes. As firms like MiaSolé close that efficiency gap, they will likely become more suitable for residential installations. Barry realizes this and said that the application of their product will change as they gain ground with efficiency.
Thin-film PV also allows for more flexibility in design and use.
For instance, MiaSolé’s modules are deposited on a flexible steel substrate, which makes them physically flexible, something that crystalline silicon panels can’t achieve. However, at present, they’re encapsulated in glass, Barry said. But the company has an active building-integrated PV program, he said. And in the future, its PV materials could take the form of roofing for instance.
Don’t expect the 15.7 percent efficient module on the shelf at your neighborhood PV store tomorrow, however.
“We have our MR-107, a 10.5 percent efficient module,” said Barry. “We’re shipping those now in volumes. We have submitted to UL a 13 percent efficient module.”
He said the 13-percent efficient modules will be in production in the second quarter, and couldn’t estimate when the new, more powerful modules would reach commercial availability.