Prices

Silver Futures Near 31-Year Highs On Economic Recovery, Inflation Fears

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)-Silver futures neared 31-year highs Friday as investors flocked to the metal as both an inflation hedge and beneficiary of the global economic recovery.

Silver for February delivery rose 72.6 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $32.298 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the metal’s strongest close since March 7, 1980.

“It’s riding on the back of gold at the moment, which is being driven by inflation fears,” said Stephen Flood, director of Dublin-based bullion dealer GoldCore.

Silver, a precious metal akin to gold, is benefiting as a hedge against rising consumer and producer prices, with inflation gaining in Europe and China. While inflation in the U.S. remains tame, some believe the Federal Reserve won’t be able to control longer-term price pressures stemming from ultralow interest rates-which also boost the allure of non-interest bearing silver and gold-and Fed purchases of U.S. Treasurys to stimulate the economy.

At the same time, the economic growth that is sparking inflation fears is also prompting a resurgence in manufacturing and consumer purchases. That’s a further boon for prices of silver, which is more widely used in manufacturing than gold.

“It’s benefiting from optimism on the global economy,” said Ralph Preston, market analyst at Heritage West Financial.

Silver’s use in electronics, solar panels and medical applications is helping offset declining demand for use in photographic film as digital photography becomes ever more ubiquitous.

Silver, which has gained 5.4% this year and 20.5% since a two-month low hit Jan. 25, would probably be at record highs now but for that spike in 1980, when the Hunt brothers of Texas famously attempted to corner the silver market and pushed prices above $40 per troy ounce.

“It’s a much more orderly market” nowadays, Flood said.

But as silver’s allure as an inflation hedge and quasi-industrial metal rises, short-term investors have been piling in, prompting some concern that the metal may be due for a big price pullback.

 Recent buying in silver has been a “fund feeding frenzy,” including a “camp that refuses to see it for being a bubble in the making,” Jon Nadler, an analyst at Montreal bullion dealer Kitco Metals, said in a note.

Silver is a short-term investor darling because it is cheap compared with gold prices, and its market is much smaller and more volatile than gold’s, increasing both the risk and the chances for quick profits.

“It continues to be the favorite of speculators,” said Bill O’Neill, a principal with Logic Advisors.

Investor interest is also surging in silver-backed exchange-traded funds, which trade like stocks and back their shares with bullion bought on the market.

Holdings in the world’s largest such fund, iShares Silver Trust, rose 1.611 million ounces in the week to Feb. 17. Zurich Cantonal Bank’s silver ETF reported silver inflows of 296,000 ounces over the same period.

In addition to the outlook on the economic recovery and rising inflation, silver is gaining extra support as a cheaper so-called safe-haven investment than gold amid worries about unrest in the Middle East and sovereign debt problems in Europe.

On Friday, Portugal’s debt problems were of particular concern as the cost of insuring Portuguese debt rose amid renewed pressure from within the euro zone for the country to seek a bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Amid the price gains, UBS upped its one-month silver forecast to $35 from $25.50. The bank also increased silver’s three-month price estimate to $33 from $27.

Gold and silver are also receiving a lot of attention from the physical market, particularly in Asia, where demand for metal bars, coins and jewelry is particularly high.

Some support may also be coming from silver miners boosting their hedging programs as they expand production and seek insurance against increasingly volatile prices.

-By Matt Whittaker, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2139; [email protected]
-Francesca Freeman contributed to this article.

Can The U.S. Break China’s Stranglehold On Rare Earth Metals?

These elements are the building blocks of a modern society, and China has all of them. Until now. The U.S. mining industry is starting to catch up.

rare-earths

You may not know what rare earth metals are, but they probably feature prominently in your life: These 17 chemical elements, which are buried in the Earth’s crust, are found in common electronics (lithium-ion batteries, laser pointers), and many clean technologies (electric car motors, solar panels, wind turbines). It’s not surprising, then, to learn that our demand for dysprosium, neodymium, terbium, and the like have increased in recent years. As it stands, the Western hemisphere is almost entirely beholden to China for its supply of rare earths. And China is willing to play hardball with its mineral deposits, putting the U.S. in a dangerous position where a key part of our economy and society is controlled by a not altogether friendly country. But that may be about to change.

Rare earth metals, paradoxically, are actually not that rare at all-in fact, many rare earths are more common than gold. But up until now, the economic incentives to mine them just haven’t been there. Recently, however, China started to curb exports and raise prices of these previously cheap metals, realizing both that they need a large domestic supply and that much of the world is dependent on them. Outside of China, rare earth metals are seen in high concentrations in select sites in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and elsewhere. And that’s creating a burgeoning rare earth industry in the U.S.

In the 1960s and 1970s, the USGS flew over the U.S., using airborne magnetometers to find anomalies in the Earth’s magnetic field that could signify big rare earth deposits. In recent years, mining companies have taken it upon themselves to confirm the presence of these deposits. They use everything from satellite technology to “almost old-fashioned prospecting. They go out in the field looking for interesting rocks and minerals, and indications of spots of interest,” says Gareth Hatch, Founding Principal of Technology Metals Research.

There are hurdles for ambitious companies to jump through. The U.S. used to produce rare earth metals at the Mountain Pass Mine in California, but it was shut down in 2002 largely because of lack of demand and environmental issues (the mine spilled a large amount of radioactive water into a neighboring lake). In 2008, Chevron sold the site to Molycorp, a company interested in reviving the old mine. Molycorp is currently expanding and modernizing the mine-a process that will yield 40,000 metric tons of rare earths by 2013, or 25% of the world’s supply.

The company, which is spending $2.4 million a year on environmental compliance and monitoring, says it plans to keep the process as clean as possible. “If what they say is what they do, you’re looking at a much more environmentally friendly process than in China, with the recycling of water and reducing effluent into the environment,” says Hatch. “But at the end of the day, you’re still messing around with some pretty nasty chemicals, and you still have waste piles of rock and radioactive material.” Fast Company’s calls to Molycorp have not been returned.

In China, rare earth mines are often responsible for egregious environmental violations, including air pollution and the production of wastewater that contains large amounts of radioactive material and acid. The pollution makes people sick, and it destroys local farmland and waterways.

California’s Mountain Pass is huge, but it isn’t enough to supply all of America’s rare earth metals. This is partially because it will produce mainly light rare earths instead of heavy rare earths, a group of chemicals that are often found in smaller concentrations. We need both types to manufacture the electronics and gadgets we enjoy so much.

There is hope for American independence in the heavy rare earth arena, however. The Pea Ridge iron mine in Missouri has a known deposit, and Quest Rare Minerals is exploring some major heavy rare earth mines in Quebec, a place that probably isn’t as likely as China to cut off the U.S. from imports or jack up prices impossibly high.

And the U.S. may soon have another major rare earth mine to count on in Nebraska, where Quantum Rare Earths is working on what may be the biggest untapped rare earths deposit in the world. But there’s a catch: Actually mining this deposit may not happen for a while. “It needs to be further explored and defined,” says Scott Wescott, a corporate communications representative for Quantum Rare Earths. That means it will take at least two to three years just to figure out the economics of mining and work on gathering permits for construction.

The permitting process is a major hurdle for U.S. companies. “The time it takes to get through the red tape is mind-boggling,” says Hatch. One DOE report claims that it will take 15 years to break dependence on Chinese rare earth metals (Hatch believes it’s more like eight to 10 years).

But we don’t necessarily have to wait for companies outside of China to get moving on their rare earth projects. In the meantime, it’s worth paying attention to companies like Nanosys, which manufactures more sustainable replacements for some of the rare earths found in LED backlighting.

Even with multiple mines and creative companies working on replacements, the U.S. will likely remain at least partially dependent on China for rare earths. It’s the classic problem of competing with China: Multiple layers of red tape may do some good in protecting the environment, but they really slow things down.

Ariel SchwartzTue Aug 16, 2011
www.fastcompany.com

Metals Through the Roof

Speakers at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town this week seemed as one in warning of a near-term supply-demand squeeze and some solid price increases for a swathe of metals.

They made the point that China and India will be central to minerals demand growth. And among the so-called rare-earth metals that are crucial to many of today’s high-tech products, China is the leading producer and is curbing exports unless they are already processed into manufactured products. As consultant Jack Lifton saw it, stronger demand has not (and cannot) lead to greater production.

Many of the metals that are needed for items such as solar panels, super-conductors and jet engines are produced as by-products of lead, zinc, copper, manganese or aluminium mining. There is no chance of increasing production of indium, gallium, germanium, rhenium, thorium and tellurium from primary mines.

It is not the same for copper, the metal showing the second-highest price increase over the past year, lead was first and zinc third. These are metals that better reflect the state of demand in the real economy.

Chinese demand is growing and, there are supply constraints. New mines cannot be brought on stream at the flick of a switch. Iron ore is in much the same boat. Price rises will be far more restrained than they were a year or two ago.

Chinese indium export policies pushing price over $1000/kg

Rare Industrial Metal - Indium

Indium is heading for prices of more than $1000/kg, according to industry analyst firm NanoMarkets in a new report “€˜Chinese Indium Strategies: Threats and Opportunities for Displays, Photovoltaics and Electronics”€™, which examines the impact on the electronics and related materials industries of recent Chinese policies to restrict the export of indium. Even higher prices have been suggested in the Chinese press — as much as $3000/kg.

China is the world’€™s largest supplier of indium by far, accounting for almost three-quarters of world reserves and about half of production. As such, its policies affect the markets for all indium-related electronic materials.

This activity has recently been formalized in a new Chinese five-year plan, which is designed to stimulate domestic Chinese high-tech industries. NanoMarkets claims that this move by the Chinese government will have significant negative implications for several classes of electronics products (in the areas of displays, lighting, photovoltaics, compound semiconductor chips, lead-free solders). The report therefore examines China’€™s evolving indium policy in both economic and political terms and explains how it will act as a catalyst for creating new growth opportunities in both the extraction industry and advanced electronic materials industries worldwide, looking especially at the impact on markets for novel transparent conductors and compound semiconductors.

In particular, high indium prices may force the conservative display industry to shift to ITO alternatives, especially those using nanomaterials, believes NanoMarkets.

Japanese indium users€”, who currently use 70% of China’€™s indium production,€” may find themselves without sufficient indium within a year. As a result, NanoMarkets expects firms in countries that have not been large suppliers of indium (including Australia, Canada, Laos and Peru) to rush into the market.

NanoMarkets also predicts that, for the first time, there will be significant amounts of indium extraction from sources other than zinc mines (e.g. sources such as tin and tungsten mining). The Chinese indium policy seems certain to incentivize new sources outside China to produce indium, either through primary extraction methods or through recycling/reclamation, the firm reckons.

Also, a sharp rise in the price of indium will harm the resurgent copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) photovoltaic (PV) industry, but in turn this will open the door for cadmium telluride (CdTe) and crystalline silicon (c-Si) PVs, which will become more price competitive, says NanoMarkets. In addition, new classes of absorber materials (zinc or tin) may emerge that are CIGS-like but don’€™t actually use indium.