Emerging Market Stocks Fall Second Day on China, India Inflation Concerns
By Jason Webb and Saeromi Shin - Jan 6, 2011 9:52 AM PT
Emerging market stocks fell for a second day on concern that China and India may raise interest rates and Brazil’s real weakened as the central bank set reserve requirements for short positions in U.S. dollars.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index traded 0.2 percent lower at 1,158.94 as of 8:57 a.m. in New York. Benchmark stock indexes in China and India fell at least 0.5 percent. Brazil’s Bovespa stock index fell 0.3 percent, and the real weakened 0.5 percent. Turkey’s ISE 100 National Index rose 0.5 percent after the government sold $1 billion of 30 year bonds at what the Ankara- based Treasury said was the lowest ever interest rate for that maturity.
Escalating inflation in China and India may prompt officials to curb expansion by lifting interest rates, slowing growth in emerging-market assets. China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday that inflation pressures in China were rising, in part due to monetary easing in the U.S. and other major economies. India may need to continue raising interest rates to combat price increases, the International Monetary Fund’s mission chief to the country said yesterday.
It’s inevitable that we’ll see interest rates rise, Hugh Young, Singapore-based managing director of Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. If currencies and interest rates remain where they are today inflation could easily turn into a nightmare.
The Federal Reserve announced plans on Nov. 3 to buy $600 billion of bonds, leading to concern that U.S. liquidity was pushing up inflation in countries such as China. The policy known as âquantitative easing is designed to stimulate the world’s biggest economy.
Jobless Claims
U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 409,000 in the week ended Jan. 1 from 388,000 the previous week, according to Labor Department figures. That was in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The real weakened for a third day. The new reserve requirement has a potential to reduce short positions in the dollar to $10 billion from $16.8 billion in December as banks seek to avoid paying reserve requirements on currency operations, Aldo Mendes, the central bank’s director of monetary policy told reporters in Brasilia.
The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.5 percent.
Ping An fell more than 4 percent in Shanghai after Citic Securities Co. said China’s second-biggest insurer may need to raise as much as 40 billion yuan ($6 billion). Citic, the largest brokerage, said the fundraising may cut earnings per- share by up to 15 percent.
Market Speculation
Ping An spokesman Sheng Ruisheng said the insurer won’t comment on âmarket speculation and that it has ânothing to disclose. The company in October reported third-quarter profit dropped 26 percent due to greater reserves, missing analyst estimates.
India’s Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index fell 0.6 percent after the IMF comments. State Bank of India, the nation’s largest lender, declined 2.7 percent.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite index lost 1.3 percent, the most in Asia, after the central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged yesterday for a 17th meeting.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS, Turkey’s biggest bank by market capitalization, rose 0.5 percent in Istanbul. Akbank TAS, the second-largest bank, advanced 0.5 percent.
The Turkish government sold $1 billion in debt maturing Jan. 14, 2041 at a yield to investors of 6.25 percent, the Ankara-based Treasury said in a statement on its website today.
Fundamentals
The issue is reported to have been five times oversubscribed, a reflection of generally constructive investor perceptions of Turkey’s fundamentals and also prospects for ratings upgrades, Timothy Ash, head of emerging-market research at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in a report.
South Africa’s rand weakened 0.9 percent against the dollar. The price of gold, which with platinum accounts for about a fifth of the country’s exports, fell for a fourth day in London.
The South Korean won rose 0.5 percent against the dollar.
The difference between the yields investors demand to hold emerging-market debt over U.S. Treasuries widened 1 basis point to 2.23 percentage points, according to the JPMorgan Chase & Co. EMBI+ index.
To contact the reporters on this story: Saeromi Shin in Seoul at [email protected]. Ian C. Sayson in Manila at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reinie Booysen at [email protected]